Not so much. All these polls are in the margin of error, in every swing state. There are fatal flaws with the NYT poll here, as there have been with almost everything they've put out this election cycle.
If you look for example at the Harvard Institute of Politics poll of the 18-29 group in April. Among likely voters in this group, Biden is +19. His 2020 margin was +21. The NYT poll has Trump +2 with this crowd! Come ON! No one rational would believe that. Even allowing for way more Biden erosion than most surveys have found, a -23 swing from Biden to Trump is just not something I can wrap my head around! Even Carter beat Reagan by 2 with this demographic, and that was a national landslide back before the 18-29 vote was as solidly Democratic.
This very respected poll also had Gaza as 2nd to last in importance with this group, among about 12 issues. Inflation, the economy, reproductive rights and democracy are, not surprisingly to anyone rational, the top issues for them and everyone else. As BEAL said above, the left flank is quite free to think this conflict really resonates with the electorate and hurts Biden, but the data just has NOT shown that, period.
Back to the overall election, though, there are much better polls that have Biden up in enough places to get well over 270. Even these NYT and Wall Street journal polls that look to be very flawed in their weighting and assumptions, have the race very close. There is an emerging trend of Biden doing better as we move from polling "all adults" to "registered voters" to "likely voters."
Most importantly, 6 months out, any further developments aren't gonna favor Trump! As Headache says, just listen to him and look at him! He hit his peak in 2016, and he hit his RECENT, far lower peak sometime early 2024- before he stepped in and squashed the bipartisan border security bill. His signature issue, Biden and Senate DEMS/GOP strongly behind a tough bill, and he blew it up! Lots of independents were watching that.
Biden is FAR better funded. The Democratic Party far better organized. This will lead to a massive ground game/turn out operation for the poll that matters on November 5! Trump is using the RNC as a legal defense fund. Has completely taken it over. Has zero ground game! Literally zero. Swing state Republican leaders are asking for help to run a campaign- get out voters, and the response from Trump has been "I got it! Discourage early voting. Fuck turn out entirely, I've got it!" That usually goes well when he says he's got something- Atlantic City casinos, sexual assault, illegal payments to Stormy Daniels. Trump steaks. Airlines. University. COVID response. We get the idea!
The economy is still ripping along. Despite some stickiness in the last mile, there's no signs inflation will flare up. Gas prices falling will help this. Israel/Gaza, tragic and difficult as it is, it appears that Biden and other Middle East leaders have successfully prevented a broader Israel/Iran (Russia!) conflict. Maybe something the lefties should be thankful for if they'd not see these things as black and white purity tests. We're at nowhere near the level of protest or social unrest we saw even in 2020, never mind 1968! So Bernie can shut up!
The Democratic party put on a great convention in 2020- virtually, this one in person will be better and I'd bet big money will have no significant protest disruption. I'd also bet it will feature a massive surprise like a GW Bush endorsement or Cindy McCain speech, etc. It will occur after Trump and the Republicans embarrass themselves and scare the living shit out of suburban women at their fiasco.
Biden himself is a great retail politician and more importantly, has always had brilliant people running his campaigns. Look how close 2020 wound up being compared to the polls. When you look at the numbers, they knew EXACTLY where to get the votes and how to turn them out.
Polls just show trends, nothing to get wrapped up in unless they're both consistently bad and that trouble continues uninterrupted through Labor Day or so. Biden had a bad stretch from fall 2023 to about the State of the Union AKA when no one gave a shit or was paying much attention.
Polls that far out in 1980 and 1992 showed Carter and Bush 41 winning 2nd terms quite easily! Even early 2020, pre-Biden in South Carolina, was looking good for Trump. He rallied his base after his first impeachment and Bernie looked like he had lots of traction. I had visions of not even watching the returns in November it would've been so bad!
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